Exiled former prime minister
Benazir Bhutto has had some powerful visitors in recent
days. Top-level sources have told The Fact that two senior
army officers, the Director Generals of the Military Intelligence
(MI) and ISI met with Bhutto in Dubai to talk about the
possible emerging political scenarios. Omar Ghumman, the
Minister for Overseas Investments who is known for his
good contacts in Washington DC, also had a meeting with
Bhutto. Media reports also speak about a foreign dignitary
and the secretary National Security Council, Tariq Aziz
meeting with her. Also taking part in what one official
termed "reconciliation efforts" are
three Muslim states who have had traditionally warm relations
with Islamabad and want stability to be top priority for
Pakistan. Saudi Arabia, UAE, and lately Qatar have access
to all parties and in fact it
was a dignitary from Qatar who had met with Nawaz Sharif
in jail in Karachi.
As Benazir Bhutto and Asif Zardari prepare to make the
pilgrimage for Umra in the holy city of Makkah in the
coming weeks, a new roadmap for the future course of Pakistani
politics is being reviewed and finalized
by the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, say sources.
According to these sources, one thing is certain in this
planning: President General Pervez Musharraf is here to
stay till 2007, after which he would like
to be re-elected president. His plans are aided by the
three crucial facts-the support of Washington, the discipline
of the Pakistan army and the crippled state of Pakistan's
opposition The News spoke to
sources in Dubai, London, US and Islamabad to get a sense
of which way Pakistani politics are expected to move in
the coming months. These sources believe it is the season
for deals and bargains in
Pakistan with the realization by the army that it is facing
unforeseen problems which include insurgency in the north
and south, mounting pressure by the US and the EU to further
democratise the system,
momentous decisions to be taken with India, national decisions
like the construction of the controversial Kalabagh Dam
to be made, and all this in the backdrop of the failure
of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League to deliver on many
counts.
According to one high level source, the Establishment
will not opt immediately for bringing back the mainstream
parties like the PPP and the PML(N) into the system, though
eventually by 2007, Musharraf would
like to see the return of the two party system. The MMA,
he said, has let down the government and is now seen as
"extra baggage" which will not be thrown out
but instead kept on board for a rainy day. The
Establishment's vision is fixed for 2007 and everything
it is doing now is geared towards that date.
"We will wait and see how the government performs
in the local body elections in June and August to assess
our own strengths and weaknesses, and this will also show
how us much we need the cooperation
of Benazir Bhutto," says an intelligence source involved
in the political scene.
When told that in a fair and free election, the PPP would
get a simple majority, he pointed to the fact that though
Bhutto might get Southern Punjab, the PPP spilt will not
get her the same votes in NWFP and
Punjab, while Balochistan has never been her strength
and urban Sindh is still with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement.
"This means she is back to where she was during her
earlier stint when she was a weak prime
minister with conditions put on her by the Establishment,"
he said. Seeing the overtures the Establishment is making
to Benazir Bhutto, one staunch liberal parliamentarian
who still supports Bhutto, is against
her returning to the prime minister's house. "Many
of Bhutto's close friends have come to us frightened that
we are bringing her back," said the source who is
abroad and is a close confidante of Musharraf. "They
say she would willingly or otherwise roll back the whole
process that is in place now, specially some of the very
good policies of Musharraf which need to be continued."
He argued that if in the past it was
Ghulam Ishaq Khan or Asif Zardari she had blamed, this
time she would blame Bilawal Bhutto.
Indeed though many in Pakistan would like Bhutto to return
and get a fair trial, there are loud voices against her
heading a future government. The Establishment has sensed
this and succeeded in a deal with her husband Asif Zardari,
say these sources. "According to the deal, Zardari
has given an assurance to Musharraf that he would not
rock the boat in Pakistan, he would have no political
truck with the MMA and when it comes to the announcement
of the Kalabagh dam , he would not oppose it", says
a source privy to the deal
which saw Zardari walking out of jail after eight years.
Benazir Bhutto's spokesman Senator Farhatullah Babar vehemently
denies her meeting senior officials representing the Establishment.
He says no offers of Bhutto returning, fresh elections
being held, PPP getting a share in an interim government
and withdrawal of cases against her have been made. Soon
after Zardari was given back his passport, the Establishment
nominated PPP senator Reza Rabbani as leader of opposition
in the Senate.
An Intelligence official
says Bhutto knows she has been given an entry point by
Musharraf but she also knows that for now at least the
US strongly supports him. He says all of Bhutto's statements
are made keeping these realities in mind. "She will
give time for elections to take place and there appears
to be a compromise for 2006," says one source.
After Musharraf phoned former Punjab chief minister Shahbaz
Sharif to condole his father's death, (Musharraf despises
Nawaz Sharif and has no respect for Bhutto, according
to an insider), Nawaz allowed his brother
to proceed to the US knowing fully well that he would
not return to Jeddah. "Our assessment is that Shahbaz
will settle down in London and at the right time, will
be allowed to come back to unify the Muslim League,"
says another source with deep connections in the Establishment.
"We would then like to see him take on Asif Zardari
who will also settle in Lahore. The PPP we have already
used to balance the MMA," he said.
But there are some who warn against a deal with the military.
Writes Ayesha Siddiqui , a defence analyst, "The
military is not only one of the few institutions in the
country, it has no equals. It has a strong
set of historical, political and organizational ethos.
This tradition and institutional memory translates into
a strong sense of commitment towards itself and its objectives.
No other entity can match the military in this respect.
The political institutions are definitely not comparable.
The political parties' learning curve is particularly
unimpressive. For instance, if the political parties had
a positive learning curve, the PPP would avoid bargaining
with the army and might go for other options. Bargaining
with the military might get a party into power for a brief
period, but will achieve nothing more than that. Hence,
it is better to stay out and struggle than get into a
deal with the military. If the political parties haven't
learnt this, it is because they lack a sound understanding
of the military."
But Secretary General PML, Senator Mushahid Hussain disagrees.
"General Musharraf does not have a traditional establishment
mindset who believes in politics of polarization or divide
and rule. He has the
capacity to reach out across the political divide and
promote national reconciliation through consensus on vital
national and international issues", he says. Word
from Dubai however, is that Bhutto is not comfortable
with Zardari leading the party in Pakistan. She realizes
that she has only been given a breather and no promises
have been made. "Well she has been cornered and has
very little choice," says an Intelligence source
who is exclusively monitoring the husband-wife politics.
"She knows that the first phase of politics which
saw the Mullah-Military cooperation is over and she and
Nawaz Sharif will have to take a back seat. She has no
other option but Zardari who is a threat both to her and
the Sharifs. In fact while others ask Bhutto about future
political moves, Zardari simply informs her," he
said.
