Extremist strikes and sectarian attacks
across the country together with mini-insurgencies in
two of Pakistan's four provinces have increased public
insecurity and criticism of President Pervez Musharraf.
All this at a time when he is seeking
ways to retain both the presidency and control of the
army before a 31 December deadline to give up one of these
responsibilities.
The growing violence in Pakistan compounded
by political instability - we have just seen the widely
anticipated resignation of the prime minister - is causing
immense concern to the US and Pakistan's other Western
allies.
It is also creating a major credibility
problem for General Musharraf's government.
Army chief ambushed
The killing of more than 70 people in
Karachi in a series of sectarian massacres earlier in
June has created a wave of instability in the port city.
After Sunni extremists massacred dozens of Shias in attacks
on their mosques and unknown assailants assassinated a
leading Sunni cleric, riots and protests shut down the
city - Pakistan's business and commercial centre - for
several days.
The attacks culminated in the 10 June
ambush on the convoy of Karachi Corps Commander, Lt. General
Saleem Hayat in which 10 soldiers and 3 policemen were
killed.
It was a clear signal that al-Qaeda and
its allies in Pakistan - Sunni extremist groups and jihadi
parties - were implementing an Osama bin Laden edict earlier
this year to target General Musharraf's government and
try and topple it.
The direct attacks on the army's top brass
- General Musharraf warded off two assassination attempts
in December - indicates that the government faces an unprecedented
threat from extremists which it has so far failed to adequately
address.
Determined to resist
Meanwhile an ongoing military offensive
in Wana in South Waziristan against al-Qaeda and local
Pashtun tribesmen has claimed more than 60 lives in June.
More and more Wazir tribesmen appear determined to resist
the government's attempt to capture or kill their al-Qaeda
guests.
Pashtun politicians and experts have voiced
fears of an anti-army insurgency spreading across the
semi-autonomous Pashtun tribal belt that lies on the border
between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In Gilgit, in northern Pakistan, tensions
between Sunnis and Shias (who are largely Ismailis or
followers of the Agha Khan) in mid-June resulted in riots
and protests leading to a 24 hour curfew in the city.
The curfew lasted for nearly two weeks.
It crippled normal life for ordinary people
and led to huge price rises as the bazaars and traffic
came to a halt.
Mounting anger
Meanwhile Balochistan province has been
gripped by a wave of rocket and mortar attacks on several
large towns by groups of unknown Baloch nationalists.
They are also believed to have been behind
the killing of three Chinese engineers in the port town
of Gwadar on 3 May.
There has also been mounting anger among
Baloch politicians and tribal chiefs on the widely-circulating
reports that General Musharraf was preparing to dismiss
Prime Minister Jamali, a Baloch tribal chief.
The rumours also raised the hackles of
politicians from the opposition and the ruling Pakistan
Muslim League in all three minority provinces.
Reports that Mr Jamali would be replaced
by a Punjabi, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, added to the strong
anti-Punjab feeling in the provinces of Sind, Balochistan
and the North West Frontier Province.
Pushed out
The government has been desperately searching
for corrective measures.
On 7 June, Sind Chief Minister Sardar Ali Mohammed Khan
resigned, although there is little doubt that he was pushed
out by the army.
On 13 June 13 the government said it had
arrested 10 members of an al-Qaeda group in Karachi, whom
it blamed for all the recent attacks in the city.
The group included two relatives of Khalid
Sheikh Mohammed, the al-Qaeda number 3 who helped plan
the 11 September attacks on the United States and was
arrested in Pakistan in March 2003.
All this came as tensions in Islamabad
between General Musharraf and Prime Minster Jamali mounted.
Mr Jamali was President Musharraf's choice
for PM after the general elections nearly two years ago,
because of his unassuming and non-confrontational manner.
While in office he hardly contradicted
General Musharraf, frequently referring to the president
as "my boss".
Differences eventually cropped up, especially
over President Musharraf's reluctance to give up his uniform
as army chief by December 31, 2004 which he pledged to
do in a public commitment in December 2003.
He now appears to be back tracking on that commitment
which Mr Jamali had resisted.
Elections discredited
Now Mr Jamali is gone.
But there is no guarantee that a new prime minister will
be able to do a better job at running the country, when
General Musharraf and the army retain total control over
all policy decisions.
The pressure on Mr Jamali to step down
has also discredited the very controversial elections
and controlled parliamentary democracy, which the army
introduced in 2002.
The real answer to Pakistan's continuing
political crisis is for the army to take a back seat and
allow the ebb and flow of democracy and civilian rule
to function more effectively.
Politicians are unable to concentrate
on the job of governance, when they are constantly having
to look at over their shoulder at the military.
