The suspense over Musharraf's uniform
issue is finally over with the appointment of General
Ahsan Hayat as the new Vice-Chief of Army Staff. It is
now clear that the President is not quitting the military.
This came as no surprise to most Pakistanis who had little
faith in Musharraf's commitment to the nation in December.
The military ruler had already made his intentions clear
last month when he declared in a TV interview, that 96
per cent of Pakistanis wanted him to stay on in uniform.
The move has exposed Musharraf's growing disillusionment
with democracy and his penchant for personalised rule.
It only confirms the people's worst fear: the perpetuation
of the military's primacy over civilian power.
Musharraf's newly installed Prime Minister
Shaukat Aziz and the ruling coalition, who have shamefully
surrendered the sovereignty of an elected parliament,
negating all principles of political democracy, have blatantly
aided and abetted Musharraf. They argue that it was necessary
for the President to continue with his dual responsibilities
in view of the war on terrorism and religious extremism.
"We are in the midst of a war and important decisions
on vital national issues are to be taken in the next few
months," says information minister, Sheikh Rashid
Ahmed.
Predictably, Musharraf's wavering has
divided the nation and raised grave questions over the
future of Pakistan's nascent democratic process. The row
over the uniform has intensified the political polarisation
between the pro and anti-Musharraf forces. While both
the Punjab and Sindh assemblies have endorsed Musharraf's
decision, the Frontier has voted against it, while the
Balochistan assembly has remained non-committal.
The General defended his decision saying
that he was a marked man and that the situation had changed
since he made his promise last year. He said in an interview
to a US publication, that the "renaissance"
he was leading in Pakistan, would be in serious jeopardy
if he shed his uniform. It is very obvious that his backtracking
stems from a fear of losing hold. "Political leaders
would start lining up to the new army chief once I announce
my stepping down from the post," General Musharraf
was reported to have told his supporters.
Musharraf's reneging has generated a
constitutional row. Many constitutional experts contend
that he is bound by the constitution to hold only one
post after the end of the year and any change in the rule
would require a constitutional amendment. The ruling coalition,
however, deny that the constitution has been violated.
The MMA, which had bailed Musharraf out on the LFO issue
and supported the 17th amendment in return for Musharraf's
agreement to the December 30 deadline for taking off his
uniform, has suffered a tremendous loss of face. The alliance
has threatened to launch a nation-wide agitation to force
Musharraf to step down. But there is little chance of
it succeeding. The opposition is too divided to pose any
serious challenge to the military ruler. The ARD has refused
to join hands with the MMA only on the uniform issue,
accusing the alliance of betraying the struggle in the
past. This division has made Musharraf's task much easier.
Though the fractious opposition is hardly
capable of mobilising the people against Musharraf, political
observers feel his decision to stay on in uniform will
not go down well in the long term. By taking an extra-legal
course Musharraf has blocked any chance of a peaceful
exit. His legitimacy in office has become much more questionable,
while Musharraf is now totally reliant on military support.
His officers have so far stood firmly behind him, but
growing public sentiment against his arbitrary rule is
likely to eventually affect even the military's ranks.
Musharraf has carried out his most major
change yet in the army's top brass since he seized power
in October 1999. Following the appointment of General
Ahsan Saleem Hayat as Vice-Chief of Army Staff and General
Ehsanul Haq as Chairman Joint Staff Committee, six other
senior generals have also retired. The retiring generals
had fully backed Musharraf on his major domestic and foreign
policy issues and the new appointments will also certainly
be required to show total loyalty to their chief. The
new appointments will be critical for Musharraf as he
walks a very tight political rope. With the formation
of the all-powerful National Security Council, Musharraf
has enshrined in the constitution a permanent political
role for the military and it is crucial for him to have
those officers by his side who will fully subscribe to
his views and policies. "Musharraf has ensured that
he and military will continue to call the shots and maintain
firm control on the levers of power. "Musharraf's
strategy is to maintain a façade of democracy and
to retain control for himself and for the army,"
says a former army general.
Musharraf is treading on political quicksand
as the uniform issue comes to a head. The political system
that he crafted so carefully appears to be floundering.
Even the election of Shaukat Aziz, his handpicked Prime
Minister, has failed to bring any political stability.
Despite the government's claim of combating extremism,
the law and order situation is getting worse. The latest
suicide attack on a Shia mosque in Sialkot that killed
more than 30 people is a grim reminder that the religious
terrorist networks are still intact and operating with
impunity.
The grisly sectarian attack came just
days after the killing of Amjad Farooqui in a shoot-out
with police in Nawabshah. The killing of one of Pakistan's
most wanted terrorists, who was seen as an important cog
in the Al-Qaeda network, was hailed by Musharraf as a
serious blow to terrorism. But the situation on the ground
is far from satisfactory. Fierce battles in South Waziristan
against the suspected militants and their tribal supporters
indicate that the situation is far graver than what the
government has been portraying. More than 300 soldiers
have been killed since the operation was launched in the
treacherous mountainous terrain in March this year.
The unrest in Balochistan over development
projects and the establishment of a new cantonment has
also raised the spectre of renewed guerrilla war by disgruntled
tribes. The situation is rapidly deteriorating because
of the military government's attempts to force a military,
rather than a political approach to diffuse the problem.
Musharraf's decision to continue in uniform may stoke
the fire further, rather than contain the problem.
The President's decision to carry on
as Chief of Army Staff is not likely to effect his relations
with the United States which sees the military leader
as a staunch ally in the war on terror, though US officials
have been cautious on the issue. Some analysts believe
Musharraf has won full backing from Bush during his recent
meeting with him in New York. The uniform issue, however,
will certainly create problems with Britain and the Commonwealth
which had restored Pakistan's membership conditionally
earlier this year.
Musharraf's wavering from his pledge
to shed his uniform raises a host of troublesome issues.
It is quite apparent that the continuation in power of
a military president will entrench the military even more
deeply in domestic politics and weaken the civilian institutions.
Five years of Musharraf's rule has enabled the military
to spread out so widely in civilian institutions of state
and society, that its presence is now firmly established
in all walks of life. "The military under General
Musharraf has undergone a major transformation, particularly
in the outlook of the top commanders. They are no longer
satisfied with the protection and advancement of their
professional and corporate interests from the sidelines,"
says Hasan Askari Rizvi, a leading defence and security
analyst. The presence of the military is invasive. It
has extended its role in the public and private sectors,
industry, business, agriculture, education and communication.
Like other states where the military
has experienced long periods of military rule, in Pakistan
too the military has become the ladder for lucrative jobs.
Since coming to power, the Musharraf government has placed
some 1200 active and retired officers in various ministries
and state corporations. Retired generals are now serving
as vice chancellors of the Punjab and Peshawar universities.
The situation has not changed after the installation of
a civilian government, and the private sector is encouraged
to accommodate army personnel.
Most analysts agree that assigning military
personnel into lucrative civilian jobs, coupled with the
distribution of the rewards of power, has far reaching
political consequences and carries a long term impact
on the military's professionalism. "The military
has expanded its non-professional interest to such an
extent that it has developed stakes in most areas of policy
making and management," says Rizvi.
Military rule has also helped consolidate
the socio-economic conditions of officers through the
perks that come with power. The military controls five
foundations that are among Pakistan's largest business
groups. They run banks, insurance companies and major
industries such as fertiliser and cement. They even own
agricultural farms, dairies and gas stations. The military's
burgeoning industrial and business empire is indicative
of its growing stake in the economy.
Several military welfare organisations
like, Fauji Foundation, the Army Welfare Trust and Shaheen
and Bahria Foundations, have become large industrial and
business conglomerates. They are involved in varied business
and commercial activities that include banking, running
universities and schools in the private sector, real estate
development and trading. Fauji Foundation, the largest,
is now trying to acquire Pakistan State Oil ( PSO) and
Ufone. The privatisation of PSO, that controls more than
70 per cent of the oil distribution business in the country,
has been delayed to allow the organisation to search for
a partner. The acquisition of these two companies with
assets of more than one billion dollars may turn Fauji
Foundation into Pakistan's biggest industrial conglomerate.
The military's land grabbing for the
establishment of Defence Societies in Pakistan's main
cities has been scandalous. In Lahore alone the military
has acquired more than 100 miles of land , extending from
the new phase six, starting from Burki road to the BRB
canal and across. According to a leading Pakistani economist,
the value of this land alone is estimated at billions
of dollars. This figure is multiplied manifold if land
controlled by the military in other cities like Karachi
is included. According to one estimate, around 35 per
cent of Karachi's prime land comes under the cantonment
board. The military says they acquire the land at market
prices, but the evidence contradicts the claim. "
It is a institutionalised corruption," says Lt General
(retd) Talat Masood.
Musharraf's decision to hold on to his
post and perpetuate the military's primacy is bound to
strengthen the military's growing economic interests.
With the political and economic stakes so high, the military
is unlikely to relinquish their privileged position even
after the restoration of civilian and constitutional rule.
The more the military entrenches itself in non-professional
fields, the less freedom political governments will be
allowed in formulating domestic and foreign policies.
