This week’s renewed
warning from the head of the UN’s office on drugs
and crime, alerting to the danger of Afghanistan heading
towards becoming a narco-state, deserves to be seen
as an opportunity for global action. For the war battered
central Asian central, proliferating flow of drugs on
top of a widely shattered infrastructure and economy
comes indeed as a deepening security challenge. But
claiming that Afghanistan’s former Taliban rulers
and members of ‘al-Qaeda’ could indeed be
among the major beneficiaries of the drug trade, needlessly
tends to politicise the debate at a time when the international
community must unite to combat what promises to be one
of the gravest challenges faced by the modern world.
More than two years after
the New York terrorist attacks prompted the US to attack
Afghanistan and remove its ‘Taliban’ rulers
from power, simple economics promises to lift or indeed
aggravate the already fast deteriorating situation.
The UN estimates the value of Afghanistan’s last
opium produce at more than U$2 billion that is a spectacular
sum for an impoverished country. That output may well
receive a lift this year, thanks to the higher rainfall
across the region that in turn is bound to improve output
of different crops.
Even if several hundred
million dollars from that crop fall in to the hands
of militant groups-as suspected by some drug experts,
there’s a considerable sum of money which nevertheless
ends up in the hands of a number of vested interest
groups and individuals, ranging from ordinary farmers
to local businessmen and perhaps even corrupt officials.
The menacing effect of Afghanistan’s drug trade
ought to be judged not just by virtue of whom receives
the pay-offs, but indeed, the significant portion of
Afghans who feel compelled to become part of the vicious
circle of the drug underworld.
For most Afghans and
understandably so, the biggest frustration must come
with the failure of the United States in either pouring
in more security troops or steeply pushing up the flow
of new economic aid. Unless vastly broken down infrastructure
in large parts of Afghanistan is rehabilitated on a
fast track, the idea of eventual economic rehabilitation
may never come together. By all accounts so far, the
relative prosperity seen today is largely concentrated
in Kabul, the capital, and perhaps one or two other
large urban centres. But in a largely nomadic, agricultural
country, with significantly arid conditions, there can
be little hope for rehabilitation unless a sweeping
effort is undertaken to clean large parts of the country
side from the many land mines left behind from the war.
Additionally, ranges of other significant inputs that
are necessary for agro-rehabilitation are necessary
to be poured in on the fast track.
Tackling Afghanistan’s
drug malaise in part must also be about dealing with
its still confused political realities. In the aftermath
of the New York terrorist attacks, Afghan president
Hamid Karzai emerged on the horizon as the saviour of
the central Asian state, representing values sharply
in contrast to those espoused by the Taliban. For Afghanistan
and perhaps even for its surrounding region, Mr Karzai
has brought along a breath of fresh air. Pakistanis
must give him credit for being the first to turn the
wheels of his country away from its journey towards
‘Talibanisation’.
But Mr Karzai’s
political credentials pose many significant questions.
For instance, the large segment of mainstream Afghans
still need to rally behind him as he heads towards delivering
the new century’s first constitutional political
set up for his country. Mr Karzai’s close backing
by the United States does not necessarily win him complete
favours with the Afghan people. While the fear of the
‘Taliban’ returning one day may haunt many
Afghans and therefore by default may force them to extend
their continued support to Mr Karzai, the rising frustration
with the United States, nevertheless, must also contribute
to a political deterioration.
The next test for Afghanistan’s
western donors comes at an aid conference in Germany
this spring where new pledges are expected to be made
in line with global concerns over the central Asian
country’s crisis. That test would indeed be two-fold.
On the one hand, donors would need to demonstrate their
generosity by making substantially larger commitments
than before. But more significantly, they would have
to demonstrate their eagerness to actually deliver their
commitments on a fast track basis. The failure to help
Afghanistan in this hour of crucial need must only work
to strengthen the hand of drug traffickers in an unprecedented
way. A new action plan just therefore is built upon
three equally important pillars.
First, an increasingly
intense effort has to be put in motion to take fresh
stock of Afghanistan’s security needs. In the
short term, there are many who argue in favours of largely
presence of troops from the United States and NATO countries.
But in the long term, there can be no alternative to
a home-grown all-Afghan military that takes responsibility
for important security duties. The very fundamentals
of any state must depend on its ability to enforce the
will of its government, and the case of Afghanistan
is therefore no different. As long as Mr Karzai remains
dependent on foreign troops to keep his government intact,
his writ on Afghanistan would be considered to remain
weak and open to question.
Second, a new political
process needs to combine a mix of Afghan tradition with
western democratic values. While events such as the
‘loya jirga’ — the grand assembly,
have indeed attracted much attention from outside Afghanistan,
there also appears to be a yearning in some western
capitals to see the central Asian country move towards
the best ideals of democracy. Tragically though, there
are many variables in Afghanistan to suggest that many
Afghans, especially in the rural areas may, indeed resent
a fast track move towards a representative form of government
that makes it acceptable to the western world. The road
to the future must therefore be carved in view of what
is best acceptable to Afghans than what is best seen
for Afghanistan from the outside world.
Finally, a bold new effort
to economically rehabilitate Afghanistan must be driven
by a sharp increase in the aid disbursed to the central
Asian country. Without widespread economic recovery
across Afghanistan, all endeavours including the drive
to stop the flow of narcotics are bound to fail. In
the long run, there can be no sure way of changing Afghanistan’s
destiny without a concerted effort to change its economic
direction. Even if estimates by the UN’s drug
programme suggesting that millions of dollars flow in
to the hands of Islamic militants, are true, there can
be no turning away from a blatant truth. That truth
must be that as long as Afghanistan’s government
remains vulnerable, be it due to its failure to independently
secure the country, or through overseeing large scale
economic rehabilitation, the central Asian state’s
future must remain clouded with uncertainty.
A review of Afghanistan’s
history must amply demonstrate that the only successful
recent model of combating the flow of narcotics was
seen while the ‘Taliban’ were in power.
They were rightly condemned for the many excesses associated
with their style of government. But their excesses included
one of using harsh punishments against opium growers
and narcotics traffickers. Perhaps there’s at
least one lesson to be revisited from the legacy of
an otherwise condemned regime.
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