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The most perilous
nuclear flashpoint


Lt Gen. (Retd) Javed Nasir

Solution to the on going insurgencies in Kashmir does not lie with the military but should be sought politically, was the statement made by Gen VP Malik in Sep 2000 just before his retirement as the Indian Army Chief of Staff. Gen S. Padmanabhn who took over from Malik not only reaffirmed this but also strongly recommended to the Prime Minister Vajpayee to extend the cease-fire. Gen VP Malik had been terribly upset by the failure of three successive attacks Being professionally the most outstanding Indian Chief Gen Malik had been most upset by the excessive mental damage done by the Fidayan attacks.

On the rear HQs and the lines of communications and the poor performance in Kargil, which had completely demoralized the Indian troops fighting in Kashmir, was the basis for his statement. The report had pin pointed the too frequent tenures in Kashmir as the main reason for extraordinary large number of desertions, over staying absent without leave, open defiance of seniors, killing of their own officers and sex starved Indian soldiers either indulging in sodomy or raping Kashmiri Muslim women. Without any exception every Indian soldier posted to units in Kashmir counts the days left over of his tenure and invariably avoids contact with the Mujahadin while on patrolling tasks. The most disturbing fact that an officer becomes due for a fresh tenure in Kashmir with in 1 1/2 -2 years of his current tenure has spread to the entire youth in India who do not want to join the army despite the attractive monetary perks offered for service in Kashmir is the main cause for constantly increasing deficiency of officers.

It was as early as 1989 that the freedom struggle in Kashmir received a major impetus when the Kashmiri youth belonging to Indian held Kashmir who had received excellent training Mujahideen in Afghanistan against the Russians had joined their brethren in Kashmir in very large numbers with the firm conviction that if they could defeat a super power like Russia in eight years, defeating Indian army in Kashmir would be much easier in much shorter time.

It was during Gen Malik’s tenure that the frequency of Fidayans suicidal attacks reached the peak in 1999 and left such deep impact which was visible clearly from the dejected and disheartened faces of every Indian soldier in Kashmir because he could no longer differentiate between the Mujahideen and the Kashmiris as both had the same looks and wore the same dresses. It was. for this reason that General Malik had spent most of his tenure in the northern command studying the Kashmir situation.

It was during his farewell call on the Prime Minister, that General Malik, the best Indian military brain comprehensively transformed Vajpayee’s thinking in favour of immediate resolution of Kashmir through ceasefire and political talks. Only a few days earlier while addressing Indian nationals in New York the same Vajpayee had vowed for the coming elections “that if you give my party 213rd majority we will build thousands of temples by demolishing the likes of Babri Mosques”. Vajpayee could not sleep for weeks after this marathon discussion which is reflected vividly in his article “My Musings from Kumarakom” which appeared in Hindu of January 2&3, 2001 stating therein that his government was ready for bold steps to resolve “The legacy of the century” the Kashmir problem. The punch line in his article was that India would not traverse solely on the beaten track of the past and Pakistani reciprocates by creating a conducive environment for a meaningful dialogue.

Seeing Musharraf coming under tremendous pressure to tow the American line for his own survival, Vajpayee unleashed the initiative of “Talks with Pakistan on all matters including Kashmir” which invoked a very positive response from not only Pakistan but also US which claimed to their credit this turn as the result of their efforts to influence the Indian leadership in the resolution of the major nuclear flash point, decided to hold the elections in India earliest to win a simple majority government to resolve Kashmir.

General Pervez Musharraf reacted very boldly in response to Vajpayee’s initiative and went out of the way to ensure effective cease fire on the LOC which very seriously reduced the frequency and intensity of operation by Mujahideen. General Malik had made it very clear to Vaj payee that if India succeeded in convincing Pakistan on a cease fire, half the battle would be won which they have.

Malik wanted that India should use the cease fire period to fence the entire LOC and mine intensively at least 1- 1 ¼ mile depth along the LOC and then even carry out small sized search and destroy missions on the lines India did in Punjab against the Sikhs.

The Kashmiris are surprised that the Americans who had themselves fought to liberate their country and called it as the American Freedom Civil War would call the Kashmiris freedom fighters as terrorist. Denial of even moral and financial support to the Kashmiris and preventing their entry into the Azad Kashmir even by Pakistan under US pressure has very seriously reduced the intensity of the Fidayan’s operations which has stemmed the sagging morale of Indian troops. Had BJP won the elections Vajpayee was most likely to offer a plan giving Siachin and parts of Kargil to Pakistan in protracted dialogues and parleys because 90% of the fatal casualties occurring therein are due to the weather and perma snow very high altitude and Pakistan would ensure a firm ceasefire during the entire period which by itself will finish the insurgency and thus raise the morale of the Indian soldiers.

To the Kashmiris he would offer the semi autonomous status with defence, currency and foreign policy staying in India’s hands. The resolution of Kashmir issue would enable India to de induct at least 2-3 lacs regular troops to ease the turn over and remove the prevalent imbalances in the strategic and tactical grouping in the main land.

In accordance with the elections results, the best Prime Minister in India’s history of 57 years resigned voluntarily when his party did not emerge as the leading political party. In Pakistan an election with similar results would have resulted in a flourishing political stock- exchange for the non leading parties to buy the majority. Sonia Gandhi set the supreme example of self sacrifice by denying herself the premiership which her party had won primarily because of her own personality and popularity and nominated Manmohan Singh as India’s new Prime Minister. No other Indian Congress or BJP leader would have ever nominated a Sikh for the post of Prime Minister or COAS. Only Sonia, a non Indian took such a bold decision to lift the Indian democracy standard above the rest of the world.

Manmohan Singh was an excellent Finance Minister but is not even a patch on Vajpayee political caliber but Sonia Gandhi felt that India needed a financial wizard to lift the country from the economic morass. Manmohan has exposed his bankruptcy in political domain by his first major policy pronouncement that Indian government will not hold any plebiscite in Kashmir on the line of UN resolutions which he calls as religion based ignoring the fact that the choice UN resolution offered to the Kashmiris in 1948 is exactly the manner in which other nationals of British India in 1947 were offered to accede with either India or Pakistan.

By the statements made by him, Natwar and Dixit clearly indicate that the Congress is not likely to resolve the Kashmir issue because none of them had the transformation of mind in favour of settling the most critical nuclear flash point like Vajpayee had experienced. Congress is most likely to tread on the beaten track of the past. What a tragedy that the best political wizard, the most seasoned politician’s party, lost the elections and it’s premiership because he had tolerated for too long his deputy Shri Lal Krishan Advani, a born terrorist whose policies, conduct and behaviour made even Milosovic look like a gentleman despite the latter’s worst brutalities. Advani gave the slogan “Hindustan is for Hindus only” he was the torch bearer of the mobs who killed thousands of Muslim.

The Indian Supreme Court up held the findings of the Indian investigating geologists that no foundations of any building or any other signs exist even within thousands of yards around Babri Mosque. He could not be convicted as an accused because the prosecution inspector who blamed all the others was too much scared of his own Super Boss the Interior Minister Advani.He had been the main brain in massacre of Muslims in Gujrat, the, demolitions, torching of Churches and killing of Christians in India.

In order to win the sympathies of his leader Vajpayee he supported his policies of friendship with Pakistan by declaring repeatedly during the Indian Cricket team’s is it to Pakistan in April this year that he would be too happy to visit Pakistan if invited forgetting that he had fled from Pakistan to India in 1948 from Hyderabad/Karachi after an unsuccessful assassination attempt on Quaid-e-Azam, an FIR registered against him still awaits for him undisposed.

It is very sad that the present Congress elite nominated by Sonia Gandhi to the various key appointments do not fully comprehend the change in power status in the sub continent. Even if India wastes its, entire national assets to raise a hundred armoured divisions and a thousand infantry divisions force, the outcome is not going to be decided by the conventional weapons conflict.

Pakistan is meaningless to us. I wish Air Chief Marshal S. Krishana Swamy had spent some time with General Malik or read Vajpayee’s article he would not have then disgraced the uniform and the rank with such ignorance. Poor Swamy does not know that even if India waists the whole GNP on equipping IAF with 100 Squadrons of modern aircraft in the next 50 years, the out break of the nuclear conflict can strand all these aircraft within 10 minutes. The meaningless country. Pakistan has already test fired successfully Hatf — V missiles which will strike with precision targets at a distances of 1500 kms, within a time frame in which IAF ace pilots doubling from the air-conditioned waiting rooms to their jets would not have even become air borne.
Air Marshal Venod Patney has put the blame of excessive Indian casualties during Kargil operation on Gen Malik (Nation dated 9 June 04) for lack of coordination with the IAF.

I suggest the Indian Black Cats should kidnap and take him to Kargil or Siachin and make him climb a position at altitude of 20000 feet ASL.

Some Indian politician made threats of “Hot pursuit operation” across the LOC. They do not realize that “Hot pursuit operations” would have served as a cause for an immediate call by the Mujahideen to the Kashmiris to rise against the Indian occupant forces as the Bangalies did in East Pakistan in 1971 in support of Indian invaders.

General Pervez Musharraf therefore must apply the brakes and re-evaluate this most critical issue between India and Pakistan which has been made to look most bleak by Manmohan without realizing that no matter is as important to Pakistan as Kashmir to Pakistan.Very few people including the politicians at the highest level know that India’s defence budget is more than Pakistan’s national budget.

In the two countries where even some of the service Chiefs and the political leaders are not aware of the extent of damage a nuclear conflict can do, instead of advocating a no war pact are recommending the national assets to be completely wasted.

This unfortunately is not being realized that the Indians are vastly superior in conventional forces and Pakistan has a distinct superiority in the nuclear weapons and their delivery system. It surprises me the most that General Musharraf who taught effectively the operational and the military strategy at the National Defence College Pakistan’s premier military institution for three years seems to have over looked the key principle that once the threat to the National Security had been identified, a11 the national policies and strategies evolved by a nation are geared to eliminate or reduce that threat.

How can the only nuclear power in the Islamic World (Pakistan) be treated as a friend by US. Pakistan is its priority one enemy. Islamic policies followed by the government and even in the armed forces were so exploited by anti Pakistan elements that even the lowest ranks in armed forces treacherously joined in the suicidal attempts to eliminate General Musharraf In an unseen attempt in Karachi the foreign trained militants/terrorist even tried to kill the Corps Commander In my assessment this is the biggest challenge facing General Musharraf
With the beaten track traders having come in control in India, General Musharraf must take Kashmir as the most cardinal issue the resolution of which can ensure permanent peace between India and Pakistan. It has appeared in the Indian press that the present government will not go for a permanent solution of Kashmir in accordance with the UN Resolutions.

It is hoped that Sonia Gandhi will accept ‘President Musharraf s invitation to visit Pakistan soonest which will give him an opportunity to asses the extent to which she would be willing to go for a Sonia Gandhi that if the Indian army tries to exploit the ceasefire in Kashmir, Pakistan will retaliate to enable the Mujahideen to revive the freedom struggle of Kashmiris back to the pre ceasefire level.

 



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