REVIEW: Future of Pakistan
Reviewed by Touqir Hussain

Pakistan's internal dynamics and external behaviour have come to reflect as well as affect many critical issues lying at the heart of some foremost US concerns in the post-Cold War and 9/11 world. Pakistan has thus attracted an enormous amount of interest and attention of the American academia, strategic community and policy makers resulting in prolific literature on the country much of which reflects a fairly high standard of research, scholarship and academic enquiry. Out of this stream has now emerged a new work by an internationally acclaimed authority on South Asia that has indeed elevated the level of discourse on Pakistan.

Unfortunately, much of the literature on Pakistan in recent years has tended to be sombre, if not apocalyptic. Stephen Cohen's book is not clouded by such stark perspectives. His searching intellect, and intimate knowledge of Pakistan, resting on decades of direct and personal exposure to South Asia, brings the issues alive leaving readers free to guide their own sentiments towards Pakistan.

The book revolves around the theme that the "idea of Pakistan" has fallen well short of its ideals. It is not strictly a historical survey or a linear narrative. What Cohen has done is that he has broken down the subject into issues that best define Pakistan, such as the idea of Pakistan, the state of Pakistan, the army's Pakistan, political Pakistan, Islamic Pakistan, regionalism and separatism, Pakistan's futures, and America's options, and then organized the book around each one of them representing a chapter.

Historically, the idea of Pakistan had embodied "many assets, several great traditions and a number of political identities". "Jinnah worked these attributes together", but after him, this complex and elaborate idea, that contained much anti-thesis, became susceptible to appropriation by dominant social, religious and administrative forces, eventually opening up divisions in the country as well as radicalizing it. Much of the book examines the institutions that stimulated such divisions, principally the army, feudal/tribal politicians and aristocracy, and Islamists "failing to establish enduring and credible political institutions, (and) sowing the seeds of Pakistan's continued instability". In the end not only the idea but the state of Pakistan as well came to a stumbling halt.

Musharraf may have stemmed the rot, but the truncated democracy, and flawed national priorities, especially the religiously denominated and India centric concept of security, are a serious constraint on Pakistan's ability to resolve the challenges it faces, even if Musharraf's intentions and capabilities may be sincere and serious, about which skepticism remains. Though the economy is improving, his reforms "seem to have produced much movement but little fundamental change".

There is much discussion in the US thinktank community as to who is to blame more for Pakistan's misfortunes, the army or the politicians. The consensus points to the army but Stephen Cohen has finessed the issue without breaking out of the predominant view. Politicians, he says, "must learn the limits of their own freedom but then must learn to expand these limits. The army on the other hand will have to understand the limits of its own capacity to govern. The army may be strong enough to prevent state failure but is not imaginative enough to transform it". There is an extra burden on the politicians - they must not only govern effectively and develop a satisfactory relationship with the army but also "solve the ideological puzzle".

"Politicians never built a political coalition strong enough to contain the army - such a coalition would have had to demonstrate competence in dealing with some of Pakistan's most pressing problems". In the end neither the army nor the politicians contributed to the capacity of the state to meet its basic obligations.

So much has been written on Pakistan over the years that the issues that define Pakistan have more or less been well identified and exposed but the problem arises in projecting the likely futures and exploring solutions to the country's intractable problems. Perhaps the quality of analysis is an issue here. Very few works on Pakistan may match the brilliance of Cohen's analysis. Yet in discussing the future of Pakistan in his book, like the rest of the US literature on the subject, his analysis also tends somewhat to be accented by multiple scenarios, but these are not abstruse and he does differentiate between the likely and the unlikely. Nonetheless the book remains very readable. And above all it avoids doomsday or any other dire predictions.

Stephen Cohen's scenarios range from the continuation of the present civil-military arrangement to soft authoritarianism, and dictatorship though he feels that the most likely scenario for Pakistan may be that its present will be its future. He rules out an Islamic revolution but does predict a gradual strengthening of Islamic parties. There is unlikely to be another Bangladesh or ethnolinguistic break up of Pakistan but Pakistan does need a new organizing idea that will provide more space for sub nationalism and an identity defined in terms other than fear.

The book closes with a chapter on American options which is probably the best contemporary assessment of the issues that the US re-engagement with Pakistan raises and the critical policy choices available to both sides in pursuit of their respective national interests.

Stephen Cohen's book The Idea of Pakistan took many years to write.Given the author's grasp of the complex reality that surrounds the "enigma" that is Pakistan and the concerns it radiates, the book almost has a touch of finality about its insight and understanding of Pakistan. It is not the last word on the subject but does stimulate the intellectual curiosity of its readers.

(The reviewer, a former ambassador, is senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace, a Washington DC based think tank)


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The Idea of Pakistan

By Stephen Philip Cohen

Published by Vanguard Books, 72-FCC Gulberg-4, Lahore

Tel: 042-5751025

Email: [email protected]

Also available with Mr Books, 10-D Super Market, Islamabad

Tel: 051-2278843-5

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.mrbooks.com.pk

ISBN 969-402-491-9

382pp. Rs695

 

 


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