Osama Bin Laden appears to be trying
to transform himself from terrorist to political leader,
say some Middle Eastern experts who have based their conclusions
on the recent video messages attributed to the Al Qaeda
leader.
But at least one of those experts questions
whether Bin Laden has anything to offer his followers
beyond a call to arms, saying he does not have solutions
to the economic and social issues facing young Muslims.
Abdel Rahim Ali, an Egyptian expert who studies Islamic
movements, said many Islamic fundamentalist or radical
groups turned into political movements after their violent
campaigns lost steam. For example, Egypt’s Islamic
Group denounced terrorism and revised its holy war strategy
after its attempt to topple Egypt’s regime by force
was met with a fierce crackdown.
“This is only natural for any radical
movement. First they start as militant and secretive and
then they try to get credibility from the public before
they turn into a political movement,” said Ali,
author of “Alliance of Terror: Al Qaeda Organisation”.
Ali said the cease-fire that Bin Laden offered the Europeans
in April in exchange for their withdrawal from Iraq was
a political message that differed markedly from his usual
uncompromising posture. Also, in a video aired on the
satellite station Al-Jazeera days before the November
presidential election in the United States, Bin Laden
made an unusual overture to the American people, telling
them they could avoid another Sept 11 attack if they chose
leaders who did not threaten Muslims.
“Even Spartacus turned his revolt
into a political movement,” Ali said. “So
why not Bin Laden?”
Ali said Bin Laden might want to transform
Al Qaeda into an organisation with both military and political
wings, mirroring paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland
or the Palestinian movement.
In Bin Laden’s latest message released
Dec 16, his first directed specifically at Saudis in years,
he advised his followers to attack the kingdom’s
oil installations to weaken both the West and the Saudi
royal family. That led to speculation Al Qaeda intended
to adopt the tactics of insurgents, not terrorists.
While some analysts say Al Qaeda has been
forced to change course because it has been weakened and
possibly shattered by a US crackdown, others believe that
any shifting by Bin Laden is only temporary and tactical.
“His goal is to build an Islamic state and his means
will remain holy war,” said Saudi writer Mshari
al-Thaydi, who has been monitoring Islamic radical groups
for years. “He does not know any other means to
make his point.”
Al-Thaydi said both Bin Laden and his
top lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahri, who addressed such issues
as human rights and corruption in recent messages, abhor
political means and only trust power. He noted that al-Zawahri,
in his book “The Bitter Harvest,” harshly
criticised the Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest Islamic
movement, for resorting to social and political programmes
to advance its quest for power. Al-Thaydi said Bin Laden’s
focus on Saudi Arabia in the recent message attributed
to him showed that he intended to step up Al Qaeda’s
terrorist activities in his homeland with the ultimate
goal of toppling the monarchy and assuming power. “Osama
thinks if he takes over Saudi Arabia he can topple all
other Islamic regimes,” al-Thaydi said.
Bin Laden has readjusted in the past “to
cope with challenges and circumstances,” said Radwan
al Sayed, a respected Lebanese writer on Islamic affairs.
Bin Laden’s main shift came in 1990,
when he clashed with Saudi rulers over the kingdom’s
decision to allow US-led coalition troops to use its territory
to stage the war to liberate Kuwait from Saddam, said
al Sayed, whose works include “Struggle For Islam”.
“That made him believe that Islam’s enemies
are not only outside, but also inside,” al Sayed
said.
