Afghanistan's prospects in 2005

Afghanistan's prospects
in 2005

By Andrew North

Rain. I am sure that is what Haji Mir Ahmad Khan would say if I asked him what he is hoping for next year. He is the chief of a tribe of Kuchi nomads.

But he is nomadic no more. He is currently living with his family in a sprawling encampment in the desert of Kandahar province. I will probably never see him again. But I will not forget meeting him a few months ago, and his words. "We want our life back," he told me, "but we've lost all our animals because of the drought."

Amid all the reports from Afghanistan about the state of the Taleban and terrorism, drugs and disarmament, people easily forget the drought - now six years old.

Stagnant pools

It is affecting most of a country that already has more than enough problems after 25 years of war.

You see dried up river beds everywhere, or lakes and reservoirs well below their normal level.

Where it runs through the capital, the Kabul river has been little more than a series of stagnant pools for years.There is little that can be done about it, of course.

But with the population growing fast - because of natural growth and the return of millions of refugees - the implications are alarming.

Already many communities are dependent on food aid. Wells are being dug deeper and deeper, as water tables sink.

The drought is one reason - among many others - why so many farmers still grow opium poppy. The plant requires less water than other crops. The drugs issue itself could provide big headlines for the new year.

With another dramatic increase in opium cultivation in 2004, President Karzai says he is going to get serious in tackling what he calls "this disgrace and dishonour" on Afghanistan's name.

Hardship and instability

The Americans have pledged $780m for anti-narcotics efforts over the next year.

They are pushing for a tough approach - including eradicating thousands of hectares of poppy fields.But with the political pressures of the upcoming parliamentary elections some wonder whether President Karzai is really prepared to take the measures necessary.

It is hardly surprising if the president is nervous. With the drugs trade worth about 60% of the legal economy according to the UN, being too aggressive could cause real hardship and instability.

Development experts argue that eradication is pointless until more has been done to give farmers alternative sources of income.Yet progress in tackling the drugs trade would help in so many other areas.

If they are not directly involved, some militant groups are believed to get some of their funds from the drugs trade - especially in the Afghan-Pakistan border region where much of the heroin processing takes place.Drugs profits also keep many militia commanders in power. For many Afghans, peace and security is a key priority.

They would like to see further evidence of people they regard as warlords being pushed out of power. The dismissal of Ismail Khan as governor of Herat in September was seen as a good start by many.

But lesser known warlord figures still hold sway in large parts of the country - defying President Karzai's central government. And although disarmament efforts have gathered pace, many of these commanders are still holding onto their best weapons.

There has to be more progress on this, analysts say, before the parliamentary elections due this year can be held - no one believes they will now happen in April as planned. The worst years of conflict may be over, but the country is far from conflict-free.

Fading force

Some believe 2005 may see the beginnings of a resolution to one aspect of the security problem - the Taleban-led insurgency that has afflicted much of the south and east for the past two years.

After the hardline Islamic movement's failure to disrupt the elections in October, hopes have risen that they are a fading force.

The US and Afghan authorities have been trying to exploit this by offering an amnesty to all Taleban members except their most senior commanders.

There is no sign of the issue that matters most to the Americans being resolved - the capture of Osama Bin Laden, if he is still in the Afghan-Pakistan border region.

Those involved in the hunt do not tend to give out progress reports.

Looming in the background is the question of whether the key mujahideen figures responsible for Afghanistan's devastating civil war in the 1990s - particularly the destruction of Kabul - should face some kind of justice.

It is an issue many in President Karzai's administration would prefer to avoid - especially as they are openly talking to some of those who could face charges.

But the anger of many Afghans who suffered in those times burns as deep as ever. And pressure groups may provide new fuel over the coming year.

In Afghanistan everything is inter-linked. As he starts his first year as elected president Hamid Karzai's challenge is deciding which bit of the knot to unravel first.