Future
is Asia |
By
Dr Iffat Idris |
When assessing the state
of Pakistan-China relations, do not use rhetoric as
a yardstick. For the language of the bilateral relationship
is invariably flowery and positive, with mutual praise
mandatory. References to the historical friendship between
China and Pakistan -- one that stretches back many decades
-- come up again and again. Given this constant of positive
verbal rhetoric, the only way to gauge the true state
of relations is to read between the lines and look at
what is not said.
That was certainly the
case for President Musharraf's recent five-day trip
to China. The language of bilateral relations during
the trip was even more flowery than usual. The Chinese
greeted Musharraf as "an old friend of the Chinese
people", but he took first prize with his "deeper
than the oceans, higher than the mountains" description
of Pak-China friendship. Though exaggerated, such positive
language was not without justification.
During his time in China
the Pakistani President met all the senior Chinese leadership,
including President Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, Jintao's
predecessor as President and current head of the commission
that runs the Chinese military. Hu Jintao became President
in March, so this was Musharraf's first meeting with
him since he assumed his new post.
In terms of concrete
outputs, the visit led to the signing of eight accords,
and a joint declaration laying out the roadmap for future
bilateral cooperation. The accords vary in significance,
from a relatively minor accord to allow export of Pakistani
mangoes to China, to the more important preferential
trade agreement (for some commodities) and an extradition
treaty. The latter allows each side's prisoners convicted
in the other country, to serve their sentence in their
native land. The ease for prisoners and their families
in this arrangement is obvious. As part of efforts to
expand the bilateral relationship beyond trade and military
cooperation, there was an accord to promote cultural
exchanges of writers and musical troupes.
Military cooperation
has always been an important component of the bilateral
relationship. It featured prominently in this trip too:
"Pakistan and China attach great importance to
the role of Pakistan-China Defence and Security Consultation
in promoting military-to-military exchanges and cooperation."
There were pledges to continue defence cooperation,
e.g. through training of military personnel. Add to
this list an MoU signed between Pakistan and South Korea
(on the final leg of Musharraf's Asia tour) to explore
possibilities for oil production in Pakistan, and the
concrete outputs from the trip were indeed considerable.
In the post-9/11 world
terrorism is never far from the agenda, and so it was
in China. In his first meeting with the Pakistani President,
Hu Jintao stressed that both countries must battle the
'three forces' of extremism, ethnic separatism and terrorism.
Jintao's definition of the 'three forces' in this manner
has much to do with the problem of Muslim-Uigur armed
separatism that the Chinese government is facing in
its north-western Xinjiang province. Ethnicity and religion
feature large in the roots of the crisis there.
The Chinese were not
discussing the situation with Pakistan in an abstract
manner, simply to get Islamabad's moral support. Rather
they did so because of concerns about Pakistan's role
in Xinjiang. There have been allegations that Muslim
separatists in the province have been getting support
from Muslim sympathizers in Pakistan. The highway linking
the region to Pakistan's NWFP is seen as the conduit
for this support. No one is suggesting that the Pakistan
government is involved in this cooperation -- if it
is taking place, it is almost certainly driven by non-state
actors. But the Chinese wanted (and got) the Pakistan
government's commitment to tackle the 'three forces'
in the Xinjiang context.
So much for what was
said: what about what was not said? From the Pakistani
perspective, the biggest unsaid thing was an agreement
by the Chinese to build a second nuclear power plant
in Pakistan. [The Chashma plant in Punjab was built
with Chinese assistance.] Pakistani newspapers confidently
reported as the President left for China, that an accord
to this effect would be signed during the trip. It wasn't.
The official explanation was that talks on the financial
and technical aspects of the deal are still going on.
But unofficially, there
is speculation that the Chinese could be holding back
because of American and international pressure. Washington,
as part of its non-proliferation drive, is unwilling
to see Beijing offer more nuclear technology to Pakistan.
Just as the Chinese have curbed their technology transfer
to North Korea because of such pressure, they could
be tempted to do the same with Pakistan. Most analysts,
though, believe the deal will go ahead eventually. China's
failure to sign a deal on this trip is seen as a gesture
acknowledging the concerns of the international community,
rather than capitulation to their demands.
The other big unspoken
item on the agenda was China's blossoming relationship
with India. One of the main factors driving Pak-China
friendship has been their shared concern about New Delhi:
Pakistan's concerns are obvious, while for China there
was the issue of rivalry for regional superpower status
plus the unresolved border dispute that led to the 1962
Sino-Indian war. But in recent years China's relationship
with India has improved greatly, to the extent that
the two countries are holding joint military exercises.
It would be an understatement
to say that Pakistan views this development with alarm.
Imagine: the very country from whose threat Pakistan
needs China's backing, now itself cosying up to the
Chinese. The Pakistanis might be alarmed, but they should
not be surprised. In the 21st century, the driving factor
for any country's foreign policy is increasingly its
economy. China is no exception. Its relations with many
countries -- not just India -- have been transformed
by its desire to promote trade and economic growth.
Beijing knows that in order to realise its superpower
ambitions, it has to first become an economic superpower.
India, with its massive middle class market, represents
an excellent opportunity for Chinese exporters.
President Musharraf acknowledged
the importance of China's economic transformation: "China's
economic miracle of the last 20 years is a beacon for
all developing countries like Pakistan." And he
at least, expressed optimism that economic growth would
allow China to become a superpower: "The past belongs
to Europe, the present to the United States, and the
future belongs to Asia." While his hosts will have
been fervently hoping his prediction comes true, the
Pakistanis will be hoping they will be able to share
that future.
All in all, a successful
Asia tour for the Pakistani president with some agreements
and much positive spin. Read between the lines, though,
and it is clear the bilateral relationship is adjusting
to new global realities: those adjustments do not necessarily
bode well for Pakistan.
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